With sales down, total active listing rose nearly 31 per cent to 33,500 units in November, compared to the same month last year. This said, active listings for the month of November 2017 were at their lowest level in more than 15 years. (Pixabay.com)

Provincial real estate body warns of ‘cracks’ in Canadian economy in 2019

British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) predicts Bank of Canada won’t meet interest goals

The body representing the provincial real estate industry warns of “cracks” in the Canadian economy.

Cameron Muir, chief economist of the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA), made that observation in the organization’s mortgage rate forecast for December 2018.

RELATED: Victoria in Canada’s top three cities for highest household debt

“The most recent quarter of Canadian GDP data was, on the surface, relatively strong, showing that the economy expanded at a 2 per cent annual rate,” he said. “However, the underlying data was far less encouraging. Household spending slowed, residential investment fell 1.5 per cent and business investment also declined following six consecutive quarterly increases.”

The report sounds especially concerned about the state of the Alberta’s oil industry. A lack of pipeline capacity has prompted a build-up of inventory, causing prices of Western Canada Select oil to drop.

The “deep discount” for Western Canada Select oil is one of the reasons why BCREA appears “skeptical” that the Bank of Canada will succeed in raising its interest rate — which sets the rate for all other interest rates — to a ‘neutral’ level of three per cent over the medium term.

“However, other cracks in the economy are starting to appear as well, including the highly publicized closing to GM’s Oshawa plant, which will have a material impact on growth in Ontario,” said Muir. “Those factors, along with a slowing housing market across Canada and a potentially sharp slowdown in US economic growth next year, may give the Bank pause.”

The Bank of Canada, in other words, may refrain from measures that could further stall an economy that appears to be slowing down anyway.

RELATED: ‘Subdued’ housing market predicted in B.C. through 2021: report

Looking at provincial figures for November, they confirm the slowing house market. According to the BCREA, November 2018 sales dropped 33.1 per cent cent from the same month last year to 5,179 units sold, with sales volume declining 34.3 per cent to $3.7 billion.

With sales down, total active listing rose nearly 31 per cent to 33,500 units in November, compared to the same month last year. This said, active listings for the month of November 2017 were at their lowest level in more than 15 years.

Notably, prices barely budged, dropping 1.9 per cent to an average of $718,903.

“BC households continue to struggle with the sharp decline in purchasing power caused by the B20 mortgage stress test,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Most BC regions are now exhibiting relative balance between supply and demand.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 23.1 per cent to $53.4 billion, compared with the same period in 2017. Residential unit sales declined 23.6 per cent to 74,847 units, while the average residential price was up 0.7 per cent to $713,302.


Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter

wolfgang.depner@saanichnews.com

Just Posted

Attendance matters for Saanich Peninsula students

Achievement depends on attendance, hundreds of students heard

Videos show allegedly intoxicated teens forcibly removed from Luxton Fairgrounds

Posts about altercations with security personnel in Langford swarming social media

Lambrick Park School invites past kings and queens to 25th Mount Douglas race

Alumni, students, staff invited to school’s yearly King and Queen of the Hill race

Saanich mayor begins living roof planting process

A garden will top Mayor Fred Haynes’ new home on Prospect Lake

UVic student killed in bus crash remembered as passionate, kind

Emma Machado, 18, killed in bus crash near Bamfield on Friday

WATCH: United Way #Drive4Five event launches campaign to raise $5 million

More than 80,000 lives changed last year by the United Way

Boy overdosed on illicit anti-anxiety drug found on Kelowna classroom floor, RCMP say

Noah Mills, 8, ingested a pink powdery substance off his Kelowna classroom floor

Fewer trees, higher costs blamed for devastating downturn in B.C. forestry

Largest driving factor is the province’s complex stumpage system that results in high fees, expert says

20 day search for missing Labradoodle in Princeton, B.C. ends with tears of joy

The search brought out bloodhounds, and groups hoping to find Mordy

Canucks sign Brock Boeser to three-year, US$17.6-million deal

Young sniper will be in Vancouver Tuesday

B.C. forest industry looks to a high-technology future

Restructuring similar to Europe 15 years ago, executive says

RCMP conclude investigation into 2017 Elephant Hill wildfire

Files have been turned over to BC Prosecution Service

B.C. wants to be part of global resolution in opioid company bankruptcy claim

Government says settlement must include Canadian claims for devastation created by overdose crisis

Most Read