Prime Minister Stephen Harper met Governor General David Johnston Sunday morning to officially start Canada's 42nd General election. Voters go to the polls Oct. 19.

ELECTION 2015: Campaign officially underway, spending limits kick in

Stephen Harper's Conservatives gain edge by launching longest federal election campaign in modern history: political analyst

Federal election lawn signs have begun to sprout now that Prime Minister Stephen Harper has fired the starting pistol on what will be a 78-day campaign, the longest in modern history.

The prime minister visited Governor General David Johnston at Rideau Hall Sunday morning to dissolve Parliament and begin the election set for Oct. 19.

The voting day had been fixed in legislation and party leaders had been in campaign mode for weeks, but dropping the writ this far ahead means spending limits will be in force for much longer than the typical 36 days.

That will give a financial advantage to Harper and the Conservatives, according to SFU political scientist Patrick Smith.

“They certainly have the largest war chest,” Smith said. “Money matters in politics.”

He predicts the Tories will far outspend their rivals and might be in a position to blitz advertising channels late in the campaign when NDP and Liberal coffers may be nearly exhausted.

A campaign more than twice the usual length means a spending limit twice as high – more than $50 million per party – that only the Tories have a realistic shot at fully exploiting.

“They have more money than the other parties so they can withstand a longer race.”

The early writ drop means third party advertising – such as union-funded anti-Tory attack ads by Engage Canada – will now be subject to a tight $200,000 spending limit, largely clamping down on their influence.

That was a key motivation for starting the campaign now rather than waiting, Smith said.

“It shuts up third party advertising and at the moment they see that as problematic.”

A long, financial war of attrition on the hustings could have ramifications beyond who actually wins the election.

Smith currently predicts a Conservative minority. In that scenario, he says, a cash-depleted or possibly indebted opposition will be less inclined to topple a minority Tory government and force a new election.

“They’re not likely to try to trigger an election in the first six months, so that helps stabilize a Conservative minority,” Smith said. “So people who think about the longer game will be thinking about those kinds of things.”

The longest campaign in more than a century will also mean higher costs to taxpayers.

Elections Canada’s costs will be higher to mobilize staff earlier.

And more spending than usual by the parties would translate into a higher government subsidy back to the them for use in future campaigns.

As for significant issues, Smith expects the federal push for new oil pipelines across B.C. will hurt the Conservatives in this province.

But he said the slowing economy will be the dominant issue on voters’ minds in deciding which party to support.

Another month of economic contraction could make a suspected recession official by September.

Smith isn’t sure that would necessarily be bad for the PM.

“If the economy is bad, do we have to stay with Harper because he’s the best man to manage it or does he get the blame?”

The bigger danger for Harper is that “once people start humming the change tune, it’s pretty hard to reverse it.”

For the Conservatives to win even a minority, the Tories may need the anti-Harper vote split as evenly as possible between the Liberals and NDP, Smith said, and many votes bled off by the Greens as well.

He thinks the Conservatives will struggle to hold onto their seats in B.C.and the Greens may take another seat or two from the NDP on Vancouver Island.

“These things could become more significant if we end up in a minority government with different permutations and combinations.”

VIDEO: Stephen Harper launches 11-week federal election campaign

Prime Minister Stephen Harper says most political parties have already started campaigning ahead of the October 19th federal election. Stephen Harper says officially launching the election forces the campaigns to be done within the rules (via The Canadian Press)

Just Posted

The shores will not rock in 2019

Atomique Productions announce Rock the Shores festival will not return in 2019, future is uncertain

Video shows logging operation on disputed Saturna Island land

Tsawout First Nation members opposed to logging on reserve land

Family still searching for missing Langford man two weeks after disappearance

Family hopeful he is alive, offering $10,000 reward

Victoria police concerned about missing man’s well-being

Delmer was reported missing on March 19

Fracking, economy, climate at centre of Green Party town hall in Metchosin

Green Party leader Elizabeth May and local candidate David Merner take questions from community

Victoria hosts ‘Ultimate Hockey Fan Cave’

The hockey cave was recently featured on a Netflix special

Calgary captain has 3 points as Flames torch Canucks 3-1

Giordano leads way as Alberta side cracks 100-point plateau

Fire crews battle large blaze at Courtenay hostel

Courtenay Fire Chief Don Bardonnex said nobody was injured

1,300 cruise ship passengers rescued by helicopter amid storm off Norway’s coast

Rescue teams with helicopters and boats were sent to evacuate the cruise ship under extremely difficult circumstances

B.C. university to offer first graduate program on mindfulness in Canada

University of the Fraser Valley says the mostly-online program focuses on self-care and well being

Province announces $18.6 million for B.C. Search and Rescue

The funding, spread over three years, to pay for operations, equipment, and training

Late-season wave of the flu makes its round in B.C.

BC Centre for Disease Control reported 50 per cent jump in flu cases in first weeks of March

Tofino’s housing crisis causing some to seek shelter at the local hospital

Tofino’s housing crisis is pushing the town’s ‘hidden homeless’ population into the forefront.

Sentencing judge in Broncos crash calls for carnage on highways to end

Judge Inez Cardinal sentenced Jaskirat Singh Sidhu to eight years

Most Read